Oscar Predictions 2015

Here’s my breakdown on who I think will take home the major awards on Sunday and who I wish would walk away with the statue.  My breakdown and individual thoughts on the nominees can be found in my Oscar Nominations 2015 post.

Last year I got 20 of the 24 categories correct, missing Original Screenplay, Foreign Language, Animated Short, and Live Action Short.

Picture

Nominees:  American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

Winner:  Birdman

Doesn’t deserve the nom:  The Theory of Everything

I wish would win:  Nightcrawler

I haven’t seen:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

Thoughts:  It’s a two horse race again this year between Birdman and Boyhood.  Boyhood has lost momentum, and the guilds (which includes people who actually vote for the Oscars) have mostly gone Birdman.  Besides, a film about the movie business and the battle between art and commerce plays well to movie people.

Director

Nominees:  Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Birdman, Richard Linklater for Boyhood, Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel, Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game

Winner:  Alejandro G. Iñárritu

I wish would win:  Xavier Dolan for Mommy

Thoughts:  This is another tight race between Iñárritu for Birdman and Linklater for Boyhood.  However, DGA went Iñárritu, and they’ve agreed with the Oscars 60 of 67 times.

Lead Actor

Nominees:  Steve Carell for Foxcatcher, Bradley Cooper for American Sniper, Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game, Michael Keaton for Birdman, Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything

Winner:  Eddie Redmayne

I wish would win:  Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler or Chadwick Boseman for Get on Up

Thoughts:  Somehow Birdman’s rise in Picture and Director has coincided with Keaton’s slip in Lead Actor.  Or it could be that we were all underestimating the very good performance by Redmayne.

Lead Actress

Nominees:  Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night; Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything; Julianne Moore for Still Alice; Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl; Reese Witherspoon for Wild

Winner:  Julianne Moore

Doesn’t deserve the nom:  Rosamund Pike (it’s a poorly written role) and Felicity Jones (she has nothing to do)

I wish would win:  Anne Dorval for Mommy

Thoughts:  It’s a lifetime achievement award for Julianne Moore, but she is good in Still Alice.

Supporting Actor

Nominees:  Robert Duvall for The Judge, Ethan Hawke for Boyhood, Edward Norton for Birdman, Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher, J.K. Simmons for Whiplash

Winner:  J.K. Simmons

I wish would win:  Edward Norton

I haven’t seen:  Robert Duvall

Thoughts:  Why Simmons is such a lock is a bit of a mystery to me.  I liked Whiplash but not nearly as much as everyone else seems to, and Simmons was a weak point to me.  He was all nastiness and no substance.  The role is written that way, but it’s not like we haven’t seen Simmons yell before.

Supporting Actress

Nominees:  Patricia Arquette for Boyhood, Laura Dern for Wild, Keira Knightley for The Imitation Game, Emma Stone for Birdman, Meryl Streep for Into the Woods

Winner:  Patricia Arquette

Doesn’t deserve the nom:  Laura Dern, Keira Knightley, Emma Stone, Meryl Streep (all didn’t have much to do)

I wish would win:  Suzanne Clément for Mommy

Thoughts:  Arquette’s taking the weakest category, even though she should be in Lead Actress.  I don’t care for Arquette in general, so her performance didn’t work for me.  Saying that, it’s hard to find enough deserving nominees to round out this category.  I’d like to see Agata Kulesza in there for Ida and Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year, but beyond that you’re reaching.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:  American Sniper, The Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

Winner:  The Imitation Game

Doesn’t deserve the nom:  Inherent Vice (poor balance between exposition and entertainment), The Theory of Everything (Mawkish and without substance)

I wish would win:  Edge of Tomorrow

Thoughts:  This is the toughest one to pick.  I think it comes down to Imitation Game or American Sniper, but I could see scenarios where anything but Inherent Vice wins.  WGA went Imitation Game.  When in doubt, go with the guilds.

Original Screenplay

Nominees:  Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler

Winner:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

I wish would win:  Nymphomaniac Vol. 1 (how many people could write that?)

I haven’t seen:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

Thoughts:  This seems like the place to reward the well-liked Grand Budapest Hotel.  It would be awesome if Nightcrawler could pull off an out-of-nowhere upset, though.

Oscar Nominations 2015

Here’s my feelings on the major 2015 Oscar nominations as a movie lover and an awards season monitor.

Picture

The nominees:  American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

I’ve not seen:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

My thoughts:  The awards season entries have been relatively poor this year, opening the door for unexpected films to slide their way to the front.  Oscar baits The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything were shoe-ins since their release, even though they aren’t smooth enough to pull off a win.  Selma and American Sniper opted for the serious docudrama route.  The former is a bit too ostentatious for its own good, while the latter has some poorly handled story elements at its fringes.  Still, these are the survivors, and they’re strong films for what they are (except for the mawkish Theory of Everything).  Whiplash, the holdover from Sundance, was a surprise entry that many people loved, but I was less enamored by it.  Still, it’s one of the few nominations that are making people feel warm and fuzzy, and I’m happy about that.  Then there’s the inevitable runners-up:  Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel.  Both are far too quirky to actually win, even though Birdman handled the most difficult material and did it splendidly.  Nope, we all know that Boyhood will win.  It’s a fine movie with a deceptively simple story, bolstered by an interesting production schedule and the opportunity to award director Richard Linklater, who’s been making films untraditionally for years.

Who I wish was nominated:  Nightcrawler, Mommy, Fury (just check out my top ten films of the year)

Lead Actor

The nominees:  Steve Carell for Foxcatcher, Bradley Cooper for American Sniper, Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game, Michael Keaton for Birdman, Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything

I’ve not seen:  NA

My thoughts:  It was a crowded field, and although many are upset at David Oyelowo getting left out, this is still a strong group.  Cooper, Cumberbatch, and Redmayne played familiar types, but each knocked it out of the park.  Carell probably pushed himself the furthest, and although his cadence of speech and Foxcatcher’s icy tone turned some people off, including myself, it’s still a great performance.  Keaton will be the deserving winner here, dominating the acting block of the Academy and beating down his younger rival, Redmayne, with the old ‘he’ll have many more chances’ argument.

Who I wish was nominated:  Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler, Andy Serkis for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Brad Pitt for Fury, James McAvoy for The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, and Ben Affleck for Gone Girl (yep, I’d change every nominee if I could)

Lead Actress

The nominees:  Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night; Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything; Julianne Moore for Still Alice; Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl; Reese Witherspoon for Wild

I’ve not seen:  Julianne Moore in Still Alice

My thoughts:  This is a rough category to fill, because there weren’t many great female roles in American cinema in 2014.  Theoretically, the Academy can nominate outside of its home country and Britain, but realistically, they only leave one slot open for that.  Cotillard, who’s familiar to the Academy after her win in 2008, slid into that spot this year for the Dardenne’s Two Days, One Night.  I added this film to my TIFF lineup at the last minute, and although I wasn’t in the mood for its realistic portrait of depression, Cotillard is good per usual.  Witherspoon turned in another performance I thought was good in Wild, but it wasn’t particularly exciting.  The other two I’ve seen, Jones and Pike, both tried admirably in what I found to be flawed roles.  Jones simply doesn’t have much to do and Pike’s Amy didn’t feel like a real character to me in either the movie or the book.  I can’t say I blame either of them for my lackluster reaction to their performances, but that doesn’t mean I think they deserve to be nominated.

Who I wish was nominated:  Anne Dorval for Mommy, Hera Hilmar for Life in a Fishbowl, Jennifer Anniston for Cake, and perhaps we should get fun and nominate Emily Blunt for Edge of Tomorrow

Supporting Actor

The nominees:  Robert Duvall for The Judge, Ethan Hawke for Boyhood, Edward Norton for Birdman, Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher, J.K. Simmons for Whiplash

I’ve not seen:  Robert Duvall in The Judge, and I have no plans to

My thoughts:  I wish Norton would win.  He was so great in Birdman, bringing just the right amount of chaos into that film’s world.  Alas, he won’t, because Simmons has this wrapped up.  One of the reasons I wasn’t big on Whiplash was that the characters felt one-note to me, and Simmons is just playing nasty.  He’s done this sort of thing many times, and as much as I like Simmons, I wish he was winning for a better role.  Ruffalo and Hawke aren’t actors I’ve particularly cared for in the past, but both showed their best sides in these films.  Ruffalo in particular was great in Foxcatcher, playing a guy who’s intelligent but out of his depth.

Who I wish was nominated:  Toby Kebbell for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Ben Schnetzer for Pride, Robert Pattinson for The Rover

Supporting Actress

The nominees:  Patricia Arquette for Boyhood, Laura Dern for Wild, Keira Knightley for The Imitation Game, Emma Stone for Birdman, and Meryl Streep for Into the Woods

I’ve not seen:  NA

My thoughts:  If you thought the actress field was weak this year, prepare to be wowed by the supporting actresses.  Arquette, the shoe-in winner, is actually the female lead in Boyhood, but she moved down here to secure a win.  I’m just so turned off by her acting that I can’t understand what people see in it, but I’m clearly the minority here.  Everyone else in this category is just blasé.  Dern is stuck in a basic role, Stone only got two real scenes, and Knightley had far more to do in Laggies.  And Streep, well, she’s getting nominated because she’s Meryl Streep.

Who I wish was nominated:  Suzanne Clément for Mommy, Agata Kulesza for Ida