Oscar Predictions 2015

Here’s my breakdown on who I think will take home the major awards on Sunday and who I wish would walk away with the statue.  My breakdown and individual thoughts on the nominees can be found in my Oscar Nominations 2015 post.

Last year I got 20 of the 24 categories correct, missing Original Screenplay, Foreign Language, Animated Short, and Live Action Short.

Picture

Nominees:  American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

Winner:  Birdman

Doesn’t deserve the nom:  The Theory of Everything

I wish would win:  Nightcrawler

I haven’t seen:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

Thoughts:  It’s a two horse race again this year between Birdman and Boyhood.  Boyhood has lost momentum, and the guilds (which includes people who actually vote for the Oscars) have mostly gone Birdman.  Besides, a film about the movie business and the battle between art and commerce plays well to movie people.

Director

Nominees:  Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Birdman, Richard Linklater for Boyhood, Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel, Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game

Winner:  Alejandro G. Iñárritu

I wish would win:  Xavier Dolan for Mommy

Thoughts:  This is another tight race between Iñárritu for Birdman and Linklater for Boyhood.  However, DGA went Iñárritu, and they’ve agreed with the Oscars 60 of 67 times.

Lead Actor

Nominees:  Steve Carell for Foxcatcher, Bradley Cooper for American Sniper, Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game, Michael Keaton for Birdman, Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything

Winner:  Eddie Redmayne

I wish would win:  Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler or Chadwick Boseman for Get on Up

Thoughts:  Somehow Birdman’s rise in Picture and Director has coincided with Keaton’s slip in Lead Actor.  Or it could be that we were all underestimating the very good performance by Redmayne.

Lead Actress

Nominees:  Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night; Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything; Julianne Moore for Still Alice; Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl; Reese Witherspoon for Wild

Winner:  Julianne Moore

Doesn’t deserve the nom:  Rosamund Pike (it’s a poorly written role) and Felicity Jones (she has nothing to do)

I wish would win:  Anne Dorval for Mommy

Thoughts:  It’s a lifetime achievement award for Julianne Moore, but she is good in Still Alice.

Supporting Actor

Nominees:  Robert Duvall for The Judge, Ethan Hawke for Boyhood, Edward Norton for Birdman, Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher, J.K. Simmons for Whiplash

Winner:  J.K. Simmons

I wish would win:  Edward Norton

I haven’t seen:  Robert Duvall

Thoughts:  Why Simmons is such a lock is a bit of a mystery to me.  I liked Whiplash but not nearly as much as everyone else seems to, and Simmons was a weak point to me.  He was all nastiness and no substance.  The role is written that way, but it’s not like we haven’t seen Simmons yell before.

Supporting Actress

Nominees:  Patricia Arquette for Boyhood, Laura Dern for Wild, Keira Knightley for The Imitation Game, Emma Stone for Birdman, Meryl Streep for Into the Woods

Winner:  Patricia Arquette

Doesn’t deserve the nom:  Laura Dern, Keira Knightley, Emma Stone, Meryl Streep (all didn’t have much to do)

I wish would win:  Suzanne Clément for Mommy

Thoughts:  Arquette’s taking the weakest category, even though she should be in Lead Actress.  I don’t care for Arquette in general, so her performance didn’t work for me.  Saying that, it’s hard to find enough deserving nominees to round out this category.  I’d like to see Agata Kulesza in there for Ida and Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year, but beyond that you’re reaching.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:  American Sniper, The Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

Winner:  The Imitation Game

Doesn’t deserve the nom:  Inherent Vice (poor balance between exposition and entertainment), The Theory of Everything (Mawkish and without substance)

I wish would win:  Edge of Tomorrow

Thoughts:  This is the toughest one to pick.  I think it comes down to Imitation Game or American Sniper, but I could see scenarios where anything but Inherent Vice wins.  WGA went Imitation Game.  When in doubt, go with the guilds.

Original Screenplay

Nominees:  Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler

Winner:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

I wish would win:  Nymphomaniac Vol. 1 (how many people could write that?)

I haven’t seen:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

Thoughts:  This seems like the place to reward the well-liked Grand Budapest Hotel.  It would be awesome if Nightcrawler could pull off an out-of-nowhere upset, though.