This is the craziest Oscar season I can remember, with
key indicators pointing in different directions and us prognosticators/nerds
spinning in circles. Anyone claiming to
have the answers is lying, because at this point there’s no way of knowing what
will happen Sunday night. Despite this,
I return to give you my breakdown on who I think will take home the major
awards and who I wish would walk away with the statue.
Picture
Nominees: The Big
Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max:
Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight
Winner: The Big
Short
Doesn’t
deserve the nom: The Revenant
I
wish would win: Z for Zachariah
I
haven’t seen: Bridge of Spies
Thoughts:
DGA, PGA, and SAG went to three different
films, and with Spotlight quickly
losing steam, the race has whittled down to a standoff between The Big Short and The Revenant. It’s been a
weird season, and this is a remarkably tough call. It comes down to a choice between three key
stats that indicate The Big Short will
win out and the gut feeling that The Revenant
has gained too much momentum to lose.
The three big stats supporting The Big Short are:
1. PGA winner has won Best Pic 100% of the time since the Oscars switched to the preferential ballot
2. In the last 15 years, 100% of the Best Pic winners were nominated for the SAG ensamble
3. In the last 15 years, 100% of the Best Pic winners were nominated for a screenplay Oscar
1. PGA winner has won Best Pic 100% of the time since the Oscars switched to the preferential ballot
2. In the last 15 years, 100% of the Best Pic winners were nominated for the SAG ensamble
3. In the last 15 years, 100% of the Best Pic winners were nominated for a screenplay Oscar
The momentum behind The Revenant comes from its DGA victory and a strong 5-win showing
at the BAFTAs (including Best Pic). DGA
and BAFTAs are strong indicators for the Oscars, but each have missed once
since the switch to the preferential ballot 6 years ago, with both misses
coming in the past two seasons. What
gives me the most pause, though, is that The
Revenant is the serious, grand-scale, important kind of film that makes it
feel like a Best Picture winner. The Big Short does not have that feel.
Even with that pause, I’m a stats person, and I can’t
turn away from those three perfect indicators for The Big Short.
Overall, the noms are full of good-but-not-great
films. Brooklyn, The Martian, Room, and
Spotlight are all solid, but they
either lack the depth of their source material or simply don’t have high
ambitions. The Revenant is a pretty, overlong picture that either doesn’t have
a clear thought or has a sophomoric point.
While I couldn’t tell from one viewing which it is, neither option makes
for a good movie. Mad Max and The Big Short are
the only two I feel really deserve their slots.
The former is one of the great action films of all time, while the
latter is both smart and
entertaining, which to me is the pinnacle of filmmaking.
Z
for Zachariah is head-and-shoulders above the other
films I saw this year. Read why here.
Director
Nominees: Adam McKay for The Big Short, George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road, Alejandro
G. Iñarritu for The Revenant, Lenny
Abrahamson for Room, Tom McCarthy for
Spotlight
Winner: Alejandro G. Iñárritu for The Revenant
Doesn’t
deserve the nom: Lenny
Abrahamson for Room
I
wish would win: George
Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road
Thoughts:
Every major predictor has
gone to Iñárritu, and you’d be silly to think anyone else will be accepting
this award come Sunday.
It’s hard to argue that Iñárritu did a bad job of
directing The Revenant because it’s just
so gorgeous, but it’s also hampered by Iñárritu’s indulgence. I have no doubt that this is precisely the
film that he wanted to make; it’s just a shame that no one told him to pay more
attention to crafting the story.
McKay, Miller, and McCarthy also made films that I
think turned out precisely how they wanted them to, and all three are exemplary
examples of their genre. McKay molded
the most difficult material into one of the best films of the year, but Miller
fought both the powers that be and the weather to make a bombastic,
guitar-shredding good time. Unfortunately,
it’s the wrong kind of film to win any of the major awards.
Abrahamson made a valiant effort of adapting a very
tricky novel in Room, but the film is
such a paired down version of the book that its lovers were bound to be disappointed. I was one of those book lovers, and I think
Abrahamson’s flair got in the way more than it helped.
Lead
Actor
Nominees: Bryan Cranston for Trumbo, Matt Damon for The
Martian, Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant,
Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs, Eddie
Redmayne for The Danish Girl
Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant
I
wish would win: Matt
Damon for The Martian
I
haven’t seen: Bryan
Cranston for Trumbo
Thoughts:
It’s been decided that this is Leo’s year, so
he’ll get his award for a solid performance in an underwritten role. Still, he should have gotten this a long time
ago.
In a rarity, the lead actor field for 2015 is weak. While very few of these performances felt
truly great, I couldn’t come up with anyone who deserved it more. For my personal taste, I would prefer to have
Ryan Reynolds for The Voices and
Michael B. Jordan for Creed in there
instead of Fassbender and Redmayne, but they’re all on pretty equal levels.
Matt Damon is the lone standout. Few people could pull off the charming
marathon he takes you on in The Martian,
and I can’t think of anyone else who could make it more fun. It’s a truly great performance in the wrong
kind of movie.
Lead
Actress
Nominees: Cate Blanchett for Carol; Brie Larson for Room; Jennifer
Lawrence for Joy; Charlotte Rampling
for 45 Years; Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn
Winner: Brie Larson for Room
Doesn’t
deserve the nom: Saoirse
Ronan for Brooklyn (it pains me to
say it, I love her so)
I
wish would win: Brie
Larson for Room
I
haven’t seen: Jennifer
Lawrence for Joy
Thoughts:
Room isn’t
my favorite movie, but Larson’s performance is astounding. The look in her eyes throughout the first
part of the film is deeply unsettling, and to imagine her getting into whatever
headspace caused that dimness while drawing a great performance from her child
co-star Jacob Tremblay and emoting palpable love for her fictional child is the
best bit of acting I saw all year. For
once, the Oscars will get it right.
Unfortunately, this bravura performance leaves
Charlotte Rampling’s excellent turn in 45
Years in the dust. In most years, I
would’ve been ecstatic to see her walk away with the trophy. This year, I’ll still feel a tinge of sadness
to see her remain in her seat.
2015 had a slew of great roles for women, and other
people popped out more to me than Blanchett and Ronan. Carol left
me cold, and I just don’t see the depth in Brooklyn
that others rave about. I sincerely
hope that Ronan lands a win in the future, because she’s one of the more
interesting (and one of the best) young actresses working today. But this year, I’d replace her with Margot
Robbie in Z for Zachariah and Blanchett
with Irena Ristic in Three Days in
September.
Supporting
Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale for The Big Short, Tom Hardy for The
Revenant, Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight,
Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies, Sylvester
Stallone for Creed
Winner: Sylvester Stallone for Creed
Doesn’t
deserve the nom: Sylvester
Stallone for Creed
I
wish would win: Paul
Dano for Love & Mercy
I
haven’t seen: Mark
Rylance for Bridge of Spies
Thoughts:
For the second straight year, I don’t
understand what’s so great about the performance that’s destined to win this
category. I found J.K. Simmons in Whiplash one-note last year, while
Stallone’s beloved performance in Creed was
wholly off-putting to me. Clunky and
monotone, he pushed his way through the film like a bull in a china shop,
stating emotions instead of actually feeling them and constantly being upstaged
by his two co-stars. Still, he’s gotten
big standing ovations whenever he’s won, so I expect the award will go to him
in a landslide.
This is a shame, because Paul Dano went big and made Love & Mercy land perfectly. Alas, he didn’t even land a nomination, while
the rest of the nominees were pretty meh in their roles. I wouldn't mind seeing Jason Mitchell take someone's spot for Straight Outta Compton.
Supporting
Actress
Nominees: Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight, Rooney Mara for Carol, Rachel McAdams for Spotlight,
Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl,
Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs
Winner: Alicia Vikander for her five roles in 2015, I
mean, The Danish Girl
Doesn’t
deserve the nom: Rooney
Mara for Carol
I
wish would win: Kristen
Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria
I
haven’t seen: Jennifer
Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight
Thoughts:
This is the only acting category that isn’t a
lock, with Kate Winslet having an outside chance at stealing it from Alicia
Vikander. Vikander was fine in The Danish Girl (I hate how everyone is
piling on her and Redmayne just because the film is flawed), but she’ll win because
of her body control in Ex Machina. On top of that excellent performance, she was
funny in The Man from U.N.C.L.E., devastating
in Testament of Youth, and a brief
but bright spot in Burnt. What more do you want from her?
And yet the best single performance by a woman in a
supporting role was Kristen Stewart, who is a great actress that made a knowing
statement on her own image. The way she
and Juliette Binoche played off of each other was electric, and Stewart
actually made her character feel more lived-in than Binoche did. That’s a remarkably tough thing to do,
because the characters in Clouds of Sils
Maria were very overwritten.
I’ve always had trouble connecting with Rooney Mara,
and her mousey role in Carol seemed utterly
bland to me. Winslet is her usual flashy
but great self in Jobs, and Rachel McAdams
is someone who deserves better roles than she gets. Outside of replacing Mara with Stewart, I’m
fine with keeping this lineup as is.
Adapted
Screenplay
Nominees: The Big
Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, Room
Winner: The Big
Short
Doesn’t
deserve the nom: Brooklyn, Carol, Room
I
wish would win: Z for Zachariah
Thoughts:
The Big
Short and Room are filled with
tough material to adapt, and The Big
Short pulled it off with style. It
won WGA, Critic’s Choice, and BAFTA. It’ll
win the Oscar for sure.
Both the book and the movie version of The Martian is a love letter to the
grinding nature of science, and as a lover of science myself, I can attest that
it got that sentiment exactly right. Brooklyn, Carol, and Room simply didn’t hit me on an
emotional level, and they were supposed to.
Z
for Zachariah is a brilliant screenplay because its
story works on so many levels. It’s a
microcosm of all sorts of human interaction, and its open-ended presentation
allows you to sink your teeth into whatever aspect you find most
appealing. It’s a wonderful achievement,
and it leaves me riveted every time I watch it.
Other films that I wish had landed noms include Testament of Youth and The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 (yes, I’m serious).
Original
Screenplay
Nominees: Bridge of
Spies, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton
Winner: Spotlight
I
wish would win: Three Days in September
I
haven’t seen: Bridge of Spies
Thoughts:
Like The
Big Short, Spotlight has been
sweeping this category, so it’s a shoe-in on Sunday.
I didn’t do a ‘didn’t deserve the nom’ list because I’d
like to propose throwing out all of the nominees. Some are perfectly fine (Spotlight and Ex Machina)
while others are deeply flawed (Straight
Outta Compton and Inside Out). If it were up to me, these would be my
nominees: Three Days in September, Star
Wars: The Force Awakens, Love & Mercy, The Keeping Room, The Voices.
