Thursday, February 25, 2016

Oscar Predictions 2016

This is the craziest Oscar season I can remember, with key indicators pointing in different directions and us prognosticators/nerds spinning in circles.  Anyone claiming to have the answers is lying, because at this point there’s no way of knowing what will happen Sunday night.  Despite this, I return to give you my breakdown on who I think will take home the major awards and who I wish would walk away with the statue. 



Picture

Nominees:  The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max:  Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight

Winner:  The Big Short
Doesn’t deserve the nomThe Revenant
I wish would win:  Z for Zachariah
I haven’t seen:  Bridge of Spies

Thoughts:  
DGA, PGA, and SAG went to three different films, and with Spotlight quickly losing steam, the race has whittled down to a standoff between The Big Short and The Revenant.  It’s been a weird season, and this is a remarkably tough call.  It comes down to a choice between three key stats that indicate The Big Short will win out and the gut feeling that The Revenant has gained too much momentum to lose. 

The three big stats supporting The Big Short are: 
1.  PGA winner has won Best Pic 100% of the time since the Oscars switched to the preferential ballot
2.  In the last 15 years, 100% of the Best Pic winners were nominated for the SAG ensamble
3.  In the last 15 years, 100% of the Best Pic winners were nominated for a screenplay Oscar

The momentum behind The Revenant comes from its DGA victory and a strong 5-win showing at the BAFTAs (including Best Pic).  DGA and BAFTAs are strong indicators for the Oscars, but each have missed once since the switch to the preferential ballot 6 years ago, with both misses coming in the past two seasons.  What gives me the most pause, though, is that The Revenant is the serious, grand-scale, important kind of film that makes it feel like a Best Picture winner.  The Big Short does not have that feel.

Even with that pause, I’m a stats person, and I can’t turn away from those three perfect indicators for The Big Short.

Overall, the noms are full of good-but-not-great films. Brooklyn, The Martian, Room, and Spotlight are all solid, but they either lack the depth of their source material or simply don’t have high ambitions.  The Revenant is a pretty, overlong picture that either doesn’t have a clear thought or has a sophomoric point.  While I couldn’t tell from one viewing which it is, neither option makes for a good movie.   Mad Max and The Big Short are the only two I feel really deserve their slots.  The former is one of the great action films of all time, while the latter is both smart and entertaining, which to me is the pinnacle of filmmaking.

Z for Zachariah is head-and-shoulders above the other films I saw this year.  Read why here.





Director

Nominees:  Adam McKay for The Big Short, George Miller for Mad Max:  Fury Road, Alejandro G. Iñarritu for The Revenant, Lenny Abrahamson for Room, Tom McCarthy for Spotlight

Winner:  Alejandro G. Iñárritu for The Revenant
Doesn’t deserve the nom:  Lenny Abrahamson for Room
I wish would win:  George Miller for Mad Max:  Fury Road

Thoughts:  
Every major predictor has gone to Iñárritu, and you’d be silly to think anyone else will be accepting this award come Sunday.

It’s hard to argue that Iñárritu did a bad job of directing The Revenant because it’s just so gorgeous, but it’s also hampered by Iñárritu’s indulgence.  I have no doubt that this is precisely the film that he wanted to make; it’s just a shame that no one told him to pay more attention to crafting the story.
McKay, Miller, and McCarthy also made films that I think turned out precisely how they wanted them to, and all three are exemplary examples of their genre.  McKay molded the most difficult material into one of the best films of the year, but Miller fought both the powers that be and the weather to make a bombastic, guitar-shredding good time.  Unfortunately, it’s the wrong kind of film to win any of the major awards.

Abrahamson made a valiant effort of adapting a very tricky novel in Room, but the film is such a paired down version of the book that its lovers were bound to be disappointed.  I was one of those book lovers, and I think Abrahamson’s flair got in the way more than it helped.





Lead Actor

Nominees:  Bryan Cranston for Trumbo, Matt Damon for The Martian, Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant, Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs, Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl

Winner:  Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant
I wish would win:  Matt Damon for The Martian
I haven’t seen:  Bryan Cranston for Trumbo

Thoughts:  
It’s been decided that this is Leo’s year, so he’ll get his award for a solid performance in an underwritten role.  Still, he should have gotten this a long time ago.

In a rarity, the lead actor field for 2015 is weak.  While very few of these performances felt truly great, I couldn’t come up with anyone who deserved it more.  For my personal taste, I would prefer to have Ryan Reynolds for The Voices and Michael B. Jordan for Creed in there instead of Fassbender and Redmayne, but they’re all on pretty equal levels.

Matt Damon is the lone standout.  Few people could pull off the charming marathon he takes you on in The Martian, and I can’t think of anyone else who could make it more fun.  It’s a truly great performance in the wrong kind of movie.





Lead Actress

Nominees:  Cate Blanchett for Carol; Brie Larson for Room; Jennifer Lawrence for Joy; Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years; Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn

Winner:  Brie Larson for Room
Doesn’t deserve the nom:  Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn (it pains me to say it, I love her so)
I wish would win:  Brie Larson for Room
I haven’t seen:  Jennifer Lawrence for Joy

Thoughts:  
Room isn’t my favorite movie, but Larson’s performance is astounding.  The look in her eyes throughout the first part of the film is deeply unsettling, and to imagine her getting into whatever headspace caused that dimness while drawing a great performance from her child co-star Jacob Tremblay and emoting palpable love for her fictional child is the best bit of acting I saw all year.  For once, the Oscars will get it right.

Unfortunately, this bravura performance leaves Charlotte Rampling’s excellent turn in 45 Years in the dust.  In most years, I would’ve been ecstatic to see her walk away with the trophy.  This year, I’ll still feel a tinge of sadness to see her remain in her seat.

2015 had a slew of great roles for women, and other people popped out more to me than Blanchett and Ronan.  Carol left me cold, and I just don’t see the depth in Brooklyn that others rave about.  I sincerely hope that Ronan lands a win in the future, because she’s one of the more interesting (and one of the best) young actresses working today.  But this year, I’d replace her with Margot Robbie in Z for Zachariah and Blanchett with Irena Ristic in Three Days in September.





Supporting Actor

Nominees:  Christian Bale for The Big Short, Tom Hardy for The Revenant, Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight, Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies, Sylvester Stallone for Creed

Winner:  Sylvester Stallone for Creed
Doesn’t deserve the nom:  Sylvester Stallone for Creed
I wish would win:  Paul Dano for Love & Mercy
I haven’t seen:  Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies

Thoughts:  
For the second straight year, I don’t understand what’s so great about the performance that’s destined to win this category.  I found J.K. Simmons in Whiplash one-note last year, while Stallone’s beloved performance in Creed was wholly off-putting to me.  Clunky and monotone, he pushed his way through the film like a bull in a china shop, stating emotions instead of actually feeling them and constantly being upstaged by his two co-stars.  Still, he’s gotten big standing ovations whenever he’s won, so I expect the award will go to him in a landslide.

This is a shame, because Paul Dano went big and made Love & Mercy land perfectly.  Alas, he didn’t even land a nomination, while the rest of the nominees were pretty meh in their roles.  I wouldn't mind seeing Jason Mitchell take someone's spot for Straight Outta Compton.





Supporting Actress

Nominees:  Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight, Rooney Mara for Carol, Rachel McAdams for Spotlight, Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl, Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs

Winner:  Alicia Vikander for her five roles in 2015, I mean, The Danish Girl
Doesn’t deserve the nom:  Rooney Mara for Carol
I wish would win:  Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria
I haven’t seen:  Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight


Thoughts:  
This is the only acting category that isn’t a lock, with Kate Winslet having an outside chance at stealing it from Alicia Vikander.  Vikander was fine in The Danish Girl (I hate how everyone is piling on her and Redmayne just because the film is flawed), but she’ll win because of her body control in Ex Machina.  On top of that excellent performance, she was funny in The Man from U.N.C.L.E., devastating in Testament of Youth, and a brief but bright spot in Burnt.  What more do you want from her?

And yet the best single performance by a woman in a supporting role was Kristen Stewart, who is a great actress that made a knowing statement on her own image.  The way she and Juliette Binoche played off of each other was electric, and Stewart actually made her character feel more lived-in than Binoche did.  That’s a remarkably tough thing to do, because the characters in Clouds of Sils Maria were very overwritten.

I’ve always had trouble connecting with Rooney Mara, and her mousey role in Carol seemed utterly bland to me.  Winslet is her usual flashy but great self in Jobs, and Rachel McAdams is someone who deserves better roles than she gets.  Outside of replacing Mara with Stewart, I’m fine with keeping this lineup as is.





Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:  The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, Room

Winner:  The Big Short
Doesn’t deserve the nomBrooklyn, Carol, Room
I wish would win:  Z for Zachariah

Thoughts:  
The Big Short and Room are filled with tough material to adapt, and The Big Short pulled it off with style.  It won WGA, Critic’s Choice, and BAFTA.  It’ll win the Oscar for sure.

Both the book and the movie version of The Martian is a love letter to the grinding nature of science, and as a lover of science myself, I can attest that it got that sentiment exactly right.  Brooklyn, Carol, and Room simply didn’t hit me on an emotional level, and they were supposed to.

Z for Zachariah is a brilliant screenplay because its story works on so many levels.  It’s a microcosm of all sorts of human interaction, and its open-ended presentation allows you to sink your teeth into whatever aspect you find most appealing.  It’s a wonderful achievement, and it leaves me riveted every time I watch it.

Other films that I wish had landed noms include Testament of Youth and The Hunger Games:  Mockingjay – Part 2 (yes, I’m serious).





Original Screenplay

Nominees:  Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton

Winner:  Spotlight
I wish would win:  Three Days in September
I haven’t seen:  Bridge of Spies

Thoughts:  
Like The Big Short, Spotlight has been sweeping this category, so it’s a shoe-in on Sunday.

I didn’t do a ‘didn’t deserve the nom’ list because I’d like to propose throwing out all of the nominees.  Some are perfectly fine (Spotlight and Ex Machina) while others are deeply flawed (Straight Outta Compton and Inside Out).  If it were up to me, these would be my nominees:  Three Days in September, Star Wars:  The Force Awakens, Love & Mercy, The Keeping Room, The Voices.


Bonus Round:  Everything Else

Editing

Nominees:  The Big Short, Mad Max:  Fury Road, The Revenant, Spotlight, Star Wars:  The Force Awakens

Winner:  The Big Short
I wish would win:  The Big Short

Cinematography

Nominees:  Carol, The Hateful Eight, Mad Max:  Fury Road, The Revenant, Sicario

Winner:  The Revenant
I wish would win:  This is a stacked lineup, and I'd be fine with any of them winning. Although, I'm sad that Meru isn't included.

Sound Editing

Nominees:  Mad Max:  Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Sicario, Star Wars:  The Force Awakens

Winner:  Mad Max
I wish would win:  The Keeping Room

Sound Mixing

Nominees:  Bridge of Spies, Mad Max:  Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars:  The Force Awakens

Winner:  Mad Max
I wish would win:  Mad Max

Score

Nominees:  Bridge of Spies, Carol, The Hateful Eight, Sicario, Star Wars:  The Force Awakens

Winner:  The Hateful Eight
I wish would win:  Star Wars (pure sentimental choice)

Production Design

Nominees:  Bridge of Spies, The Danish Girl, Mad Max:  Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant

Winner:  Mad Max
I wish would win:  Ex Machina

Visual Effects

Nominees:  Ex Machina, Mad Max:  Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars:  The Force Awakens

Winner:  Star Wars
I wish would win:  Ex Machina

Costume

Nominees:  Carol, Cinderella, The Danish Girl, Mad Max:  Fury Road, The Revenant

Winner:  Cinderella
I wish would win:  Star Wars

Makeup & Hairstyling

Nominees:  Mad Max:  Fury Road, The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Windown and Disappeared, The Revenant

Winner:  Mad Max
I wish would win:  I'm gonna be honest, I have zero opinions

Song

Nominees:  Earned it, Fifty Shades of Grey; Manta Ray, Racing Extinction; Simple Song #3, Youth; Til It Happens To You; The Hunting Ground; Writing's On The Wall, Spectre

Winner:  Til It Happens To You
I wish would win:  Til It Happens To You

Animated

Nominees:  Anomalisa, Boy and the World, Inside Out, Shaun the Sheep Movie, When Marnie Was There

Winner:  Inside Out
I wish would win:  Inside Out

Foreign Language

Nominees:  Embrace of the Serpent, Mustang, Son of Saul, Theeb, A War

Winner:  Son of Saul
I wish would win:  Three Days in September

Documentary

Nominees:  Amy; Cartel Land; The Look of Silence; What Happened, Miss Simone?; Winter on Fire

Winner:  Amy
I wish would win:  Meru

Animated Short

Nominees:  Bear Story, Prologue, Sanjay's Super Team, We Can't Live without Cosmos, World of Tomorrow

Winner:  Sanjay's Super Team

Live Action Short

Nominees:  Ave Maria, Day One, Everything Will Be Okay, Shok, Stutterer

Winner:  Ave Maria

Documentary Short

Nominees:  Body Team 12; Chau, beyond the Lines; Claude Lanzmann:  Spectres of the Shoah; A Girl in the River; Last Day of Freedom

Winner:  Claude Lanzmann:  Spectres of the Shoah


So how crazy do you think I am?  Leave a comment and let me know your predictions and opinions!

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